MD 2080 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 142211Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...Hail/wind threat continues with storms over the central Plains. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of strong boundary-layer heating extends across western KS into central NE, immediately ahead of the primary frontal zone. Latest diagnostic data suggests 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted across this portion of the central Plains, coincident with an expanding zone of frontal convection. This activity has recently increased along the leading edge of a notable vort max ejecting northeast, within the base of the larger trough. While deep-layer shear appears more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived rotating updrafts, numerous storm mergers have resulted in a more QLCS-type structure that is advancing slowly east across western portions of ww611. MRMS data suggests at least marginally severe hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this trend should continue over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39170102 41750079 41759808 39169841 39170102 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
