Mesoscale Discussion 2088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Areas affected…extreme southeast KS…southwest into central MO
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 671…
Valid 060011Z – 060215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 671
SUMMARY…Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be capable of
large hail/gusts. Forecast peak hazard intensities through 9pm:
max hail size 1.50 to 1.75 inches in diameter, 70-80 mph gusts.
DISCUSSION…Widely scattered thunderstorms have recently developed
along a cold front extending from western MO south-southwestward
into extreme southeast KS. Very warm temperatures into the low to
mid 90s are immediately ahead of the storm activity.
Short-term model guidance indicates storms will gradually increase
in coverage over the Ozarks this evening in the form of a couple of
thunderstorm bands as additional cold pool consolidation occurs.
The stronger storms will likely continue to pose a risk for large
hail this evening along with severe gusts. The severe risk will
probably transition to mainly a damaging-wind risk by late evening
coincident with lessening buoyancy and upscale growth into linear
modes less favorable for hail growth.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 37049547 37679473 38839393 39349326 39419278 39249232
38969214 37039403 37049547