MD 2094 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613… FOR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into the western OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 172247Z - 180045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and gusty winds remain possible with thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper trough is settling south across the central Rockies early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across CO, which appears to be influencing convection along the Front Range, south to the CO/NM border, just east of Raton. Strongest buoyancy extends across the OK Panhandle into central portions of the watch, and latest radar data suggests several robust updrafts are likely generating severe hail east of Raton. This activity will continue to propagate southeast along a frontal zone that arcs from north of Clayton NM-south of Guymon OK. Other more isolated activity should spread southeast off the Palmer Divide along the northern fringe of ww613. Hail and wind remain possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240491 38640551 38630255 35230206 35240491 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
