MD 2095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST VA…WEST/CENTRAL CAROLINAS…AND PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023
Areas affected…Southwest VA…west/central Carolinas…and
portions of east/central GA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 071825Z – 072100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The potential for sporadic damaging thunderstorm gusts
will increase through the afternoon. A watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION…Efficient boundary-layer heating/destabilization of a
moist air mass (upper 60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) is underway
along/east of the southern Appalachians — where recent surface
analysis indicates a slow-moving NNE/SSW-oriented cold front.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will continue
in the vicinity of the front (aided by orographic lift along the
southern Appalachians) and boundary-layer circulations/differential
heating zones over the warm sector (where convective inhibition is
minimal). A relatively higher concentration of thunderstorm
development is possible over parts of GA into SC this
afternoon/early evening, where modest large-scale ascent is expected
ahead of a midlevel impulse tracking southeastward over the TN
Valley.
Despite generally weak flow/shear across the region, relatively
steep deep-layer lapse rates and the rich low/mid-level moisture
will support strong to locally damaging thunderstorm gusts — aided
by water-loading into the well-mixed boundary layer. Severe-gust
potential should be greatest with any areas of localized convective
clustering/upscale growth.
..Weinman/Kerr.. 09/07/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…RAH…RNK…CHS…CAE…GSP…JAX…MRX…FFC…
TAE…
LAT…LON 35408281 34528342 33798391 33078424 32418440 31888435
31618407 31488359 31598308 31948263 32748183 33708094
34638020 35467976 36687949 37057968 37278003 37338048
37138105 36568177 35408281
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