MD 2105 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST MO…NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL AR…NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Areas affected…Southeast KS…Southwest
MO…Northwest/West-Central AR…Northeast OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 080741Z – 080945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Large hail and/or damaging gusts are possible from
southeast KS and southwest MO into northeast OK and
northwest/west-central AR this morning.
DISCUSSION…Strengthening low-level flow and associated warm-air
advection has resulted in thunderstorm development across southeast
KS and adjacent portions of southeast MO and northeast OK. Based on
forecast soundings, most of this activity is likely based around 700
mb. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate northwesterly flow
aloft are contributing to robust updrafts, and the potential for
isolated hail with initial updrafts.
This cluster is expected to generally progress southeastward with
time, maintained by continued warm-air advection and additional
steep mid-level lapse rates. Warm and dry low-level profiles exist
downstream, evidenced by DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, which
suggests that negative buoyancy could enhanced any outflow produced
by these storms. As such, despite the elevated nature of these
storms, some strong to severe gusts appear possible, particularly
across northeast OK and northwest AR where surface temperatures are
still in the mid 70s. Some potential for upscale growth exists as
the cluster moves into areas characterized by greater low-level
moisture and buoyancy later this morning. Overall convective
evolution, particularly the timing of any upscale growth, remains
uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Grams.. 09/08/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SGF…TSA…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 38169556 37399338 35739230 34639270 34589386 35009487
35769544 36599598 37559659 38169556
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