MD 2106 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Areas affected…Portions of southern AR into northern LA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 081410Z – 081545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
persist for a couple more hours this morning. Watch issuance is
unlikely in the short term, but trends will be closely monitored.
DISCUSSION…A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this
morning across parts of southern AR. This activity has been tied to
warm/moist advection associated with a west-southwesterly low-level
jet across the southern Plains. Recent radar depictions show outflow
from these thunderstorms has surged southward and well ahead of the
leading edge of reflectivity, with a recent wind gust to 38 kt at
KELD as the outflow passed through. Substantial MLCIN shown on the
12Z SHV sounding will likely continue to limit potential for severe
wind gusts in the next couple of hours. However, a moist low-level
airmass is present downstream of this convection into northern LA.
Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass will gradually erode
the boundary-layer inhibition in tandem with gradually increasing
MLCAPE. An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may persist
into northern LA this morning, but watch issuance appears unlikely
in the next 1-2 hours.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 09/08/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…LZK…SHV…
LAT…LON 33979355 34209321 33419209 32559182 31909209 32019359
33149396 33839386 33979355
Comments