MD 2107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Areas affected…Portions of the FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 081718Z – 081945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and marginally
severe hail should persist this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon
across much of the central FL Peninsula on the southern periphery of
a weak upper low centered over south GA/north FL. Cool mid-level
temperatures noted on the 12Z TBW/JAX observed soundings, along with
daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, have aided the
development of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Marginally severe hail has
been observed with one of the stronger cores that developed, and an
isolated hail threat should continue given modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates. Some threat for occasional strong to damaging
winds may also exist with loosely organized clusters spreading
slowly southward/eastward. Still, deep-layer shear is expected to
remain weak across the FL Peninsula through the day given modest
low/mid-level flow. This should generally limit better thunderstorm
organization, with only isolated strong to severe convection
anticipated through the rest of the afternoon. Accordingly, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 09/08/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…
LAT…LON 28438255 28638182 28828160 29708148 29618099 28448051
26868008 26948122 27728235 28438255
Comments