MD 2110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Areas affected...Parts of north Texas and far south-central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 212046Z - 212245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk will increase over the next few hours. The
primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch
may be needed for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations and visible satellite
imagery indicate a remnant outflow boundary shifting slightly
northward in north-central TX -- potentially in response to an
evolving surface low over the Rolling Plains. Boundary-layer cumulus
is deepening along the outflow boundary, and isolated convective
initiation is underway. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization amid
upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to moderate surface-based buoyancy. This buoyancy and
around 50 kt of effective shear (with enhanced low-level clockwise
curvature) should initially favor a couple semi-discrete supercells
-- with a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. With
time, storms may congeal into clusters while tracking
east-southeastward, which would promote an increasing severe-wind
risk. While the primary concern for severe storms is in north TX, a
couple strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail will
remain possible across southern OK.
While storm coverage and the spatial extent of the threat is
somewhat uncertain, a watch may be needed for parts of the area.
..Weinman/Smith.. 09/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32629696 32339782 32199894 32349948 32839993 33260002
33589983 33819899 34089796 34579706 34599647 34159610
33469638 32629696
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
