MD 2112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Areas affected…portions of far northern North Carolina into
southeast Virginia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 082120Z – 082245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few instances of severe wind or hail remain possible for
the rest of the afternoon. The severe threat should be relatively
isolated and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Multicellular storms are propagating north toward the
NC/VA border, and some of these storms have a history of producing
severe wind and hail (including a measured gust exceeding 65 kts an
hour or so ago). While vertical shear is weak, these storms should
continue developing northward and pulse in intensity amid a heated
boundary layer (90+ F surface temperatures supporting 2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE). Damaging gusts remain the main threat, though an instance
or two of severe hail may still occur with the stronger storm cores
given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. The severe threat should remain
isolated into the evening hours, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/08/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…RAH…RNK…
LAT…LON 36357912 37077859 37427775 37477736 37267686 36907627
36387626 36197642 36147768 36357912
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