SPC MD 2118

SPC MD 2118

MD 2118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TX

Mesoscale Discussion 2118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Areas affected…Central/East/Southeast TX

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 090728Z – 090930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gusts are possible across portions of
central, southeast, and east Texas for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION…Recent radar imagery has shown an intensification of
the thunderstorms ongoing along a southward-progressing outflow
boundary moving from central TX into portions of southeast and east
TX. PSN recently gusted to 44 kt around 0720Z. Latest mesoanalysis
estimates gradually increasing buoyancy from near these storms into
southeast TX, and this increased buoyancy is likely partially
responsible for storm intensification.

Based on forecast soundings, the cloud bases of this cluster are
likely around 700 mb (10 kft). The downstream airmass is
characterized by a relatively warm and dry sub-cloud layer,
suggesting the potential for strong gusts exists as the ongoing
cluster and associated outflow move through. Given this trend
towards outflow-dominant structures and continued nocturnal cooling
(and resultant increase in convective inhibition), the overall
intensity of the cluster is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves
southward over the next few hours.

..Mosier/Grams.. 09/09/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…

LAT…LON 32229598 32249465 31009407 30279561 31199666 32229598

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