MD 2119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SD…NORTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 2119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023
Areas affected…South-Central SD…North-Central NE
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 090746Z – 090945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong gusts are possible across south-central SD
and north-central ND for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION…Recent radar imagery has shown a trend toward more
forward propagation with the cluster of warm-air advection
thunderstorms moving along the central SD/NE border vicinity.
Overall buoyancy is modest, but the low-level jet will persist for
at least the next few hours, with related warm-air advection support
storm persistence as well.
Based on forecast soundings, these storms are likely based above 700
mb (10 kft), atop a notably warm and dry sub-cloud layer. These
environmental conditions could support the production of robust,
negatively buoyant outflow, which could produce strong gusts at the
surface, despite relatively cool surface temperatures. Even so,
isolated nature of this wind threat should preclude the need for a
watch.
..Mosier/Grams.. 09/09/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FSD…GID…LBF…UNR…
LAT…LON 43330181 43500103 42739852 41529876 41750092 42500176
43330181
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