MD 2122 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023
Areas affected…portions of eastern New Mexico into far western
Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 092125Z – 092300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe gust or instance of hail may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Multicellular and pulse-cellular storms have been
gradually intensifying over the higher terrain in central NM, where
strong surface heating and boundary-layer mixing has boosted MLCAPE
over 1000 J/kg. Given scant low-level moisture, these storms are
high-based and are expected to remain so through the rest of the
afternoon. 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis)
should support the potential for a severe gust or two. Given steep
lapse rates also present in the 700-500 mb layer, some hail may also
accompany the most potent storm cores. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain isolated overall and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LUB…AMA…MAF…ABQ…
LAT…LON 34050554 35040511 35450475 35680408 35590333 35320302
34640293 33990305 33540329 33370355 33310440 33250488
34050554
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