MD 2123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO…EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS…EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO…WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE…EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023
Areas affected…extreme southwest Nebraska…extreme eastern
Colorado…extreme northwest Kansas…extreme northeast
Colorado…western Oklahoma Panhandle…extreme northwest Texas
Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 092147Z – 092315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…The severe threat may be increasing across portions of the
central and southern High Plains, both with storms approaching from
central NE, and with the potential for storms to develop along the
CO/KS border area. Severe wind and hail are the main concerns.
Conditions are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Multiple supercells across central NE have begun to
grow upscale into an MCS structure, with the southwest flank of this
structure anchoring along the surface lee trough (located from
southwest NE and trailing along the CO/KS border). This developing
MCS may continue to propagate south-southwestward amid a buoyant and
sheared airmass, which in turn may support an increasing severe
threat into northwestern KS later this evening. Multiple attempts at
convective initiation have also been observed along the lee-trough
in extreme eastern CO. Though convective coverage along the lee
trough remains questionable, any storms that can develop may become
supercellular, supporting severe wind and hail given 7.5-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs with slight low-level
curvature. Any severe threat that materializes may last for at least
a few hours. As such, convective trends are being monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending adequate
convective coverage, mainly across northwest KS.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GID…LBF…DDC…GLD…AMA…PUB…ABQ…
LAT…LON 36120368 38060271 39530225 40230212 40480167 40390053
40229965 39879954 39159984 38240026 37400120 36160255
36120368
Comments