MD 2140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023
Areas affected…parts of southern Virginia southwestward to
northeastern Georgia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 121945Z – 122145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A couple of stronger storms/storm clusters may produce
marginally severe wind gusts and/or hail near 1″ in diameter this
afternoon. WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Latest RAP-based objective analysis shows a
destabilizing airmass across parts of southern Virginia and the
Carolinas vicinity, ahead of an advancing surface cold front that
has reached the Appalachians this afternoon. While weak mid-level
lapse rates are limiting CAPE to some degree, values as high as 2500
J/kg are indicated within a zone straddling the North and South
Carolina borders.
In tandem with the destabilizing airmass, scattered thunderstorm
development is underway, from eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia
to the Carolinas and into southwestern Virginia. With only weak
forcing for ascent apparent over the region, and modest lapse rates
aloft, storms should overall remain generally sub-severe. However,
with veering/modestly increasing flow with height, shear may prove
sufficient to support some multicell organization locally —
accompanied by some attendant/marginal severe potential. Stronger
storms should remain sufficiently isolated and low-end to preclude
any need for WW consideration.
..Goss/Guyer.. 09/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…RNK…CAE…GSP…FFC…
LAT…LON 34248368 35128278 35998176 37058045 37387910 36607768
35827726 34197960 33548144 33878370 34248368
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