MD 2141 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023
Areas affected…portions of southern Arizona and southern New
Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 122128Z – 122300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Some uptick in severe potential may occur over the next
few hours. Isolated bouts of severe hail/wind may accompany the
strongest storms and a WW is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Storms near the AZ/NM/international border area have
been percolating in intensity over the last couple of hours, with
MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing an increase in 1 inch MESH tracks
with some of the strongest storms. Recently, robust convective
initiation has taken place in far western Pinal County, AZ, where
slightly elongated hodographs and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE support
supercell structures capable of severe hail. A severe gust or two
also cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. Overall, the
severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri.. 09/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABQ…EPZ…TWC…FGZ…PSR…
LAT…LON 32921274 33661157 33930973 33380717 32890615 32430621
31990665 31810744 31560790 31270838 31340938 31361045
31541104 32111247 32921274
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