MD 2142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF DELAWARE INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023
Areas affected…much of Delaware into far southern New Jersey
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 130443Z – 130615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A cluster of storms over eastern Maryland may persist for
a couple hours as it moves across Delaware and into southern New
Jersey, producing locally strong to severe gusts.
DISCUSSION…Several storms near Chesapeake Bay have congealed into
a rather impressive cluster given an environment of modest
instability and weak shear. Surface analysis shows ample moisture in
place with 70s F dewpoints, and temperatures aloft are relatively
cool as seen on point forecast soundings. The cluster is near a warm
front, and aided by southerly winds around 20 kt just off the
surface. A severe gust of 54 kt was recently measured at KMTN around
04Z.
Given the size of ongoing mass of storms, and continued inflow of
moisture and uncapped airmass, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, a continued
risk of isolated severe gusts is possible across DE and perhaps into
far southern NJ.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 09/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PHI…AKQ…LWX…
LAT…LON 38517484 38537546 38647571 38877589 39147604 39317608
39597613 39747587 39777527 39677429 39557410 39177459
38867468 38517484
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