MD 2147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023
Areas affected…The Big Bend region of Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 132155Z – 140000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Sporadic severe hail and wind will be possible over the
next couple of hours as thunderstorms continue to mature. However,
this threat will remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…Over the past 1-2 hours, GOES IR imagery has shown
steadily cooling cloud top temperatures associated with a multicell
cluster south of the Fort Stockton, TX area. Although individual
cells within the cluster have demonstrated limited longevity and
organization so far, the overall trend suggests that the potential
for severe wind/hail is increasing for downstream areas. This
cluster is expected to continue propagating east/southeast along a
low-level theta-e gradient where buoyancy is maximized (MLCAPE up to
1500 J/kg). Furthermore, sufficient shear is present in the 0-5 km
layer to support supercell structures, though the observed storm
mode will likely continue to modulate this potential. While the
severe threat is noted, these limitations will preclude the need for
a watch.
To the west, a cluster of storms across northern Mexico is
undergoing similar intensification per GOES IR imagery, and should
cross the TX/Mexico border within the next hour. These cells may
intensify further as they move towards the regional buoyancy
maximum, and could also pose a severe hail/wind threat along and
just north of the Rio Grande.
..Moore/Edwards.. 09/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EWX…MAF…
LAT…LON 28990292 28890323 29440441 29720466 30190487 30420495
30610487 30650469 30670442 30520386 30500352 30620314
30760265 30760242 30660213 30410183 29850168 29700174
29750210 29630259 28990292
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