MD 2148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023
Areas affected…central to northern Arizona
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 132222Z – 140015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Instances of large hail will be possible for the next few
hours as transient, but robust, thunderstorms continue to develop
across central to northern Arizona. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Numerous robust, but short lived (30-60 minutes)
thunderstorms continue to develop across central to northern AZ.
Deep-layer flow over the region remains very weak (effective bulk
shear values on the order of 15 knots), which is contributing to the
short duration of most cells. However, MUCAPE over the region is
near the 90th percentile for the Flagstaff, AZ region for
mid-September. This, combined with mid-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, is likely supporting the robust, but transient updrafts noted
in GOES IR and KFSX reflectivity imagery. Severe-hail signatures
have been noted in MRMS products with these cells, suggesting that
large hail is possible. This activity is largely being driven by a
combination of weak low-level theta-e advection over the Mogollon
Rim and lift along a composite outflow/weak dryline draped over the
region. Both of these factors should continue to support
thunderstorm development through sunset before the onset of
nocturnal cooling.
..Moore/Edwards.. 09/13/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGZ…
LAT…LON 34151048 34381143 34551251 34791292 35231314 35721313
35881281 35791192 35591127 35301054 34981004 34690981
34510974 34250975 34121004 34151048
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