MD 2149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Areas affected…parts of eastern New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 191935Z – 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage
increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large
hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION…Low-level moisture continues to increase across the
region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented
band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W
meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far.
Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next
few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt
deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are
enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2,
sufficient for a brief tornado.
As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase
this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends
dictate.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MAF…ABQ…EPZ…
LAT…LON 32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451
35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476
32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596
