MD 2157 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685… FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Areas affected…central Texas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685…
Valid 161351Z – 161515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
continues.
SUMMARY…A couple of strong to severe gusts may persist another 1-2
hours before thunderstorms weaken. A downstream watch is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION…An overall weakening trend has been observed over the
past 30-60 minutes with a bowing cluster of storms moving across the
Concho Valley/central TX. Much of the trailing convection to the
south/southwest of the apex has decreased in intensity
substantially. However, a 44 kt gust was reported at SJT about an
hour ago, and a gust to 64 kt was reported at the West Texas Mesonet
site at Doole about 30 minutes ago.
The overall expectation is that convection will continue to weaken
in a modestly unstable airmass characterized by weak vertical shear,
poor lapse rates, and decreasing warm advection as storms continue
to shift east/southeast. A couple of strong/severe gusts near the
apex may persist in the short term, but a downstream watch is not
currently expected.
..Leitman.. 09/16/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 31809954 31779830 31149773 30679779 30349811 30289896
30569958 30930000 31209999 31519986 31809954
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