MD 2158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Areas affected…Far southeast Nebraska…Northeast
Kansas…portions of western Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 161930Z – 162130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few marginal supercells storms may produce large hail
and isolated strong/severe wind gusts this afternoon. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION…A compact shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery now entering the Coulee Region in west-central Wisconsin. A
broader trough extends southwest into the central Plains. Modest
forcing along a weak surface boundary in conjunction with the
mid-level trough has helped initiate what has so far been isolated
convection in southeastern Nebraska. Shear in parts of the Missouri
Valley is maximized as the mid-level jet is moving through the
region. While moisture is not overly rich (dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s) temperatures aloft are cold enough (-16 C on OAX 12Z
observed sounding) to support modest (around 1000 J/kg) MLCAPE.
Through the remainder of the afternoon, widely scattered storms will
continue to develop and pose a risk for large hail (1-1.5 in.) and
isolated strong to severe wind gusts. With modest buoyancy and
forcing, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal.
..Wendt/Hart.. 09/16/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…GID…
LAT…LON 40509532 39909459 38629430 38159442 38029515 38089613
38299664 38759745 39099781 40029813 40399761 40559610
40509532
Comments