MD 2159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Areas affected…eastern Kansas…far western Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 162248Z – 170115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered storms, some capable of hail around 1.00″
diameter, may persist into the early evening hours.
DISCUSSION…Storms have matured within a weak surface trough over
northeast KS, and beneath cooling temperatures aloft in association
with a shortwave trough. Storm initiation near peak heating as well
as the cold temperatures aloft are aiding hail potential, and
deep-layer shear is sufficient at around 35 kt to support a few
longer-lived cells over the next few hours. Indications are that
instability will remain sufficient trough at least 01-02Z across
much of eastern KS and possibly far western MO near the border,
until loss of heating eventually leads to dissipation. Until then,
hail around 1.00″ or slightly larger will be possible, with locally
strong gusts. However, the overall trend for storm coverage should
be down after 01Z, and watches are not anticipated.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/16/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 39219720 39119638 38979549 38939496 38889436 38709408
38409400 37909403 37449428 37379486 37859583 38449676
39009723 39219720
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