MD 0216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Areas affected…west central Missouri through eastern Kansas and
northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 122226Z – 122330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is
possible through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the potential
evolution of isolated supercells posing a risk for marginally severe
hail and wind.
DISCUSSION…To the south and east of a weak low, embedded within
broader surface troughing across much of the central Great Plains,
the boundary-layer has become modestly deep and well mixed, with a
corridor of limited low-level moisture return (including mid/upper
50s F surface dew points) contributing to CAPE on the order of
500-1000 J/kg. This generally extends from near/west of Kansas City
into the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, near the southern
periphery of colder mid-level air (at or below -20C around 500 mb)
associated with a digging short wave trough.
Inhibition has slowly been eroded within peak afternoon heating,
aided by large-scale ascent, particularly across the Greater Kansas
City vicinity, where stronger low-level warm advection has become
focused, and across the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity,
within the exit region of an east-southeastward propagating
mid-level jet (50+ kt around 500 mb).
Strongest deep-layer shear is focused closer to the mid-level jet
core, where the initiation of vigorous discrete thunderstorm
development seems most probable prior to sunset, before waning
earlier with the loss of daytime heating. Farther north, high
resolution convection allowing guidance has been suggestive that
that higher probabilities for the initiation of sustained
thunderstorm development will await nocturnal low-level jet
strengthening, and enhancement of forcing associated with low-level
warm advection, generally near/east of Kansas City.
At least attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing
throughout the destabilizing environment. Regardless of the timing
of sustained initiation, isolated supercells structures may evolve
and promote a period with potential for convection to produce
marginally severe hail and wind.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…TSA…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 39569575 39979472 39989373 39279284 38729357 38319419
37039438 36289503 36589626 37369595 38289594 39569575
