SPC MD 2162

SPC MD 2162


Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected…northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 192036Z – 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
next 2-3 hours. Very large hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
this afternoon or early evening, but timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION…Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the upper 80s/low 90s across the OK/TX Panhandles into western
OK/northwest TX. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection also has
maintained dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s while aiding in
erosion of convective inhibition. Increasing/deepening cumulus is
evident in visible satellite imagery over the TX Panhandle/South
Plains vicinity, suggesting subtle large-scale ascent is spreading
east across the region. Additional cumulus development beneath
weakening cap has also been noted over western north TX.

A zone of moderate instability (to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
overlapping with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized convection, with a mix of supercells and clusters
anticipated. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km. This wind
profile, coupled with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggest very
large hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible,
even if storms are somewhat elevated due to lingering low-level
inhibition (which increases with eastward extent and also with time
into the evening). Isolated strong gusts also will be possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed late this afternoon
or early evening, but given subtle forcing mechanisms and lingering
inhibition, timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/19/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 34540042 35010001 35249892 35429791 35369760 35089744
34899753 34489768 33559807 33089865 32909937 33080035
33180093 33480119 33530119 34540042

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