MD 2167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Areas affected…parts of central Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 200416Z – 200615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A lingering isolated supercell continues to pose a risk
for severe hail, but still appears likely to steadily, if not more
rapidly, weaken as it moves southeast of Stephenville, toward the
Temple vicinity, through 1-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION…An isolated supercell propagating across the
Stephenville vicinity has begun to weaken, but radar data, including
the MRMS Mesh, suggests that it is still producing severe hail as it
moves south-southeastward around 30 kt. This cell appears focused
within the exit region of a strong northwesterly high-level jet (80+
kt around 300 mb), where storm-scale dynamic forcing supported by
strong deep-layer shear likely has slowed storm dissipation.
Activity has been moving into an environment characterized by warmer
mid-levels with progressively weaker mid-level lapse rates and lower
precipitable water. This appears to result in a drop off in CAPE
from around 1000 J/kg to around 500 J/kg south of Stephenville into
the Temple vicinity, which probably will result in at least a
continued gradual weakening of the cell during the next couple of
hours.
..Kerr/Bunting.. 09/20/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…
LAT…LON 32449815 31799739 31169734 31109799 32189849 32449815
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