MD 2168 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 695… FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern KS and western Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 695...
Valid 302318Z - 310045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 695 continues.
SUMMARY...A broken squall line continues to slowly mature near the
eastward advancing cold front. As these updrafts organize, they will
remain capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a long
broken band of storms near a cold front stretching from northern MO,
into northeast and east-central KS. So far, this line has remained
on the cool side of the front, with numerous bursts of likely
elevated convection. Over the last hour, composite radar imagery and
satellite have shown some intensification of the convection as it
has started to overtake the front in spots. The environment across
northeastern KS is broadly unstable with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
45-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Plenty sufficient for continued storm
organization into a QLCS mode, storms should slowly strengthen as
they quickly track east northeast this evening. A few more isolated
cells have also been noted on a subtle confluence axis ahead of the
primary squall line. Intensification of these incipient storms into
supercells is possible given favorable thermodynamic/kinematic
parameter space, though highly uncertain.
Given the primary linear storm mode, the main severe risk is likely
damaging winds. Strong mid-level flow will aide in downward
transport of strong wind gusts, some potentially as high as 75-80
mph. However, low-level shear is also strong and expected to
increase this evening with the intensification of the low-level jet.
VAD data and 00-02z RAP forecast soundings show enlargement of
hodographs is underway, with 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. This will
support a risk for a few tornadoes. Despite the messy storm mode, an
isolated stronger tornado will also remain possible should a more
established supercell develop given the very strong low-level shear.
..Lyons.. 10/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38169603 38439614 39249562 39839527 40089488 40079480
40469370 40289348 39979346 39139373 38169409 38099463
38079544 38089568 38169603
