MD 2169 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Areas affected…portions of southern Oklahoma and adjacent North
Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 211958Z – 212200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over
the next few hours, with local/limited severe threat potentially
evolving. WW issuance may need to be considered in the next 1 to 2
hours.
DISCUSSION…Filtered heating of a moist low-level airmass over the
Oklahoma/Texas vicinity has supported afternoon destabilization,
with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now observed. As a weak
disturbance at mid levels progresses eastward across the Red River
Valley area this afternoon, a cluster of thunderstorms has
developed, and is currently centered over south central Oklahoma.
Additional storm development is expected across this area over the
next few hours.
While low-level flow remains relatively weak, a belt of enhanced
(around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow associated with the
aforementioned disturbance will continue to spread across this
region. This will contribute to shear sufficient for organized
storms, and associated potential for marginal hail/wind risk with
stronger storms. Some CAMs have hinted at potential for
upscale/linear growth later on, which could increase the wind
potential into this evening.
While storms have been slow to organize/strengthen, some recent
intensification is noted over the Murray County OK vicinity. We
will continue to monitor evolution of severe-weather potential
across this area, along with any need for WW issuance.
..Goss/Hart.. 09/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SHV…TSA…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 33489872 33919829 34499790 34819751 35129603 34739509
33889489 32889543 33039726 33489872
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