MD 0217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Areas affected…parts of west central missouri and southwest
Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 130334Z – 130500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe
hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish
through 11 PM-Midnight.
DISCUSSION…Near the western periphery of the modestly
strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger
ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better
low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the
upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas
City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may
also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast
of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a
continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However,
warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western
Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold
core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley.
It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of
convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…
LAT…LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363
37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404
