MD 2170 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Areas affected…Parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central
Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 212041Z – 212245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Storms have developed along a diffuse warm front. Some
threat for large hail and isolated damaging winds will exist. A
watch is possible depending on convective trends in coverage and
intensity.
DISCUSSION…Away from the greater large-scale forcing, a few storms
have developed along a diffuse warm front. MLCAPE values do decrease
north and east of this activity so the duration of the threat is not
entirely certain. However, the environment does support supercells
and the downstream environment is not overly prohibitive despite
being less favorable. Large hail and isolated damaging winds may
occur with this activity. A greater severe threat may develop later
in the afternoon as storms move into the area from the west. A watch
may be needed this afternoon. Given the uncertainty, convective
trends will continue to be monitored in the short term.
..Wendt/Hart.. 09/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…ICT…GID…
LAT…LON 40529867 40569745 40189638 39489629 38999681 39099768
39419852 40139884 40529867
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