MD 2172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Areas affected…Eastern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 212218Z – 220015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few strong to severe storms appear probable this evening
with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. However,
this risk should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have
initiated across eastern KS with somewhat rapid cloud top cooling
noted in IR imagery (approximately 20 C over a 20 minute window).
Broken cloud cover through the afternoon has muted diurnal
destabilization to some degree, but seasonally rich low-level
moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of
2000 J/kg. Additionally, southeasterly low-level flow under
southwesterly winds aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values
near 35 knots – sufficiently for organized cells. Although the
regional environment is supportive of supercells with an attendant
hail/wind risk, east/southeast KS is on the periphery of stronger
mesoscale and synoptic ascent to the northwest across northern KS
and NE. This casts uncertainty onto storm coverage, and slow storm
motions should limit the potential for storm interactions/upscale
growth. Consequently, this threat should remain fairly isolated, and
a watch will likely not be needed.
..Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…TSA…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 37089605 37569650 38159697 38739706 38929702 39139669
39079624 38679546 38159501 37569460 37149449 36759460
36649505 36709542 37089605
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