MD 2179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Areas affected…parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 231222Z – 231445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be accompanied by
some risk for a brief tornado through the 10 am- Noon time frame
across areas near and south of the Hampton Roads vicinity. It is
not clear that a tornado watch is needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION…Ophelia continues a slow north-northwestward migration,
to the north of the Morehead City vicinity. Low-level hodographs
are enlarged and clockwise curved to the northeast of its center,
but with near-surface flow initially northerly and only gradually
veering to an easterly component within this regime, the tropically
moist boundary layer has largely remained offshore.
Weak boundary-layer destabilization has been supported by surface
dew point increases into the lower 70s F, but this has been confined
to a small portion of the northeastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia coastal plain. Little substantive change
appears likely into midday, but convection has been increasing in a
broken band pivoting inland around the northeastern periphery of
Ophelia, toward the Hampton Roads vicinity of southeastern Virginia.
Given the presence of an environment marginally supportive of modest
low-level mesocyclone strengthening within the short-lived stronger
convection, a brief tornado may not be out of the question through
14-16Z.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/23/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…
LAT…LON 37157654 37257604 36277581 36477626 36297677 37157654
Comments