MD 2181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN KS…WESTERN/CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Areas affected…Far Eastern KS…Western/Central MO
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 231509Z – 231715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated large hail and a few strong gusts are possible
for the next few hours across eastern Kansas and western/central
Missouri.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of elevated multicellular thunderstorms has
recently increased in coverage downstream of moderate low- to
mid-level flow extending from western OK into eastern KS. 12Z TOP
sounding sampled modest low moisture beneath a relatively cool and
dry mid-levels, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The sounding itself
sampled 2370 J/kg of MUCAPE, which matches recent estimates of
around 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE from mesoanalysis relatively well.
The low to mid-level flow responsible for the warm-air advection
supporting these storms is expected to persist, with the overall
environment persisting as well. As such, the ongoing cluster is
forecast to continue for the next few hours. Continued heating
downstream should continue to erode any convective inhibition, with
at least some possibility for trend towards more surface-based storm
character by the afternoon. Until then, there is an risk for
isolated large hail. Additionally, despite the elevated storm
character, the dry layer between 900 and 800 mb observed on the 12Z
TOP sounding could aid in strengthening downdrafts, allowing for
gusts to reach the surface.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/23/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LSX…SGF…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 39959554 40419508 40189370 39619319 38789272 37879280
37399374 37379474 37859541 38669551 39959554
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