MD 2182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL IA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 2182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Areas affected…Central IA into far southern MN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 231809Z – 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Some severe threat may persist and potentially increase
with an ongoing storm cluster this afternoon, with additional storm
development possible.
DISCUSSION…Some recent intensification has been noted with a
long-lived storm cluster moving across west-central IA. Convection
within this cluster likely remains somewhat elevated in nature,
given that MLCINH is still relatively substantial across the region.
However, steep midlevel lapse rates, favorable elevated buoyancy,
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support organized
convection in the short term, with a threat of localized hail and
near-severe gusts.
The evolution of this system with time remains uncertain. The most
favorable low-level convergence and large-scale ascent is forecast
to become focused back to the west of this cluster later this
afternoon, but modest downstream heating/destabilization may support
potential for this system to become surface-based with time. Should
a transition to surface-based convection occur, either with the
ongoing cluster or new storms that may develop along its southern
flank, than the severe threat will increase, including the potential
for supercells with some tornado potential, given favorably veered
low-level wind profiles (as noted on the KDMX VWP). Watch issuance
is possible in order to address these threats, though the timing of
any watch issuance remains somewhat uncertain.
..Dean/Guyer.. 09/23/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ARX…MPX…DMX…FSD…
LAT…LON 42769530 43569384 43579292 42429251 41249276 40929327
40799371 40929409 41249446 41299460 41479481 41729504
41979505 42449497 42769530
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