MD 2183 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698… FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of west Texas into extreme southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 022055Z - 022230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 698. Severe hail and wind appear to be the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes may still occur. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are in progress across extreme southeastern NM, with additional storms attempting to strengthen in far western TX near convective outflow remnant from an earlier squall line. MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that severe hail may be falling with some of the more mature supercells, and a couple of stones may be approaching 2 inches in diameter. These storms are maximizing in intensity along a stalled convective outflow boundary, which is where the greatest threat for severe storms (including a tornado or two) remains. Farther south into the warm sector, the initiation of robust storms remains uncertain. Here, ample buoyancy remains in place, but visible satellite shows a stagnant, or potentially decaying cumulus field. Still, the severe threat should persist near the outflow boundary, where lift is strongest for supporting further storm development and potential upscale growth into a squall line later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32560442 32990359 33150261 32820148 32260134 31800175 31650270 31690349 31890414 32560442