SPC MD 2192

SPC MD 2192


Mesoscale Discussion 2192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Areas affected…North/Central TX into TX Hill Country

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 242003Z – 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Thunderstorm development appears possible across North TX
during the next hour or two, with additional development expanding
into the Hill Country later this afternoon/evening. Strong to severe
storms are possible, with very large hail and damaging gusts as the
primary risks.

DISCUSSION…Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an
increasing agitated ACCAS/cumulus field across North TX, where
temperatures have climbed into the upper 90s just ahead of a surface
low centered over Montague County. The deepening cumulus appears to
be at least somewhat forced by modest moisture convergence ahead of
a weak pre-frontal trough. Some cumulus, although with less depth,
has also shown up over the TX Hill Country south of BWD and north of
JCT. Limited convective inhibition remains in place, but continued
low-level convergence in this vicinity and numerous attempts at
sustained updrafts, along with some glancing large-scale ascent,
should be able to overcome any capping. Earliest convective
initiation is expected over North TX, with storms developing later
across the Hill Country.

Warm and moist low-levels beneath relatively cool and dry mid-levels
support strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over
2000 J/kg. Moderate to strong shear is also in place, with the
combination of buoyancy and shear supporting organized storm
structures, including the potential for supercells. Primary severe
risk is very large hail, with strong gusts possible as well. Tornado
threat is generally expected to be low, owing to high LCLs and weak
low-level flow. However, interaction with an outflow boundary moving
eastward/southeastward across northeast TX could augment low-level
shear while also contributing to greater low-level moisture and
lower LCLs, supporting a spatially limited tornado threat.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/24/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 32019834 33509694 33579553 32629541 31239636 30459802
30259945 31209980 32019834

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