Mesoscale Discussion 2193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Areas affected…portions of northern and central Texas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 695…
Valid 250009Z – 250215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 695
SUMMARY…Risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will
continue over the next few hours across central and northeastern
Texas, in/near WW 695.
DISCUSSION…Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are ongoing, within
WW 596, near and ahead of a nearly stationary surface front. Ahead
of the boundary, a strongly unstable airmass (2500 to 3500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE) persists per RAP-based surface analysis, which is
supporting locally intense convection.
Local VAD wind profiles continue to reveal flow veering/increasing
with height, from southerly near-surface in the 0-1 km to
west-northwesterly at 40 kt at mid levels — which is supporting
ongoing supercells. As such, risk for large hail and locally
damaging winds will continue over the next few hours. Additionally,
a tornado cannot be ruled out — particularly over northern portions
of the watch near the weak warm-frontal zone.
While storms near eastern fringes of the watch may drift
eastward/out of the WW, south-southeastward storm motion should
limit any eastward expansion of the risk, which could preclude any
need for new WW issuance. We will continue however to monitor
evolution of the risk east of the existing WW.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 30809977 31379832 31859765 33149720 33619638 33809519
33439441 32649416 31389507 30549665 29989792 30169936