MD 2195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
Areas affected…eastern portions of the FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 251737Z – 251900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A couple instances of hail or damaging gusts may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected
since the severe threat should remain isolated.
DISCUSSION…Ample diurnal heating is resulting in the
destabilization of a moist boundary layer, with low to mid 70s F
dewpoints prevalent across central and eastern portions of the FL
Peninsula. Continued heating will support the breaching of
convective temperatures, with scattered thunderstorms developing in
both the open warm sector and along sea-breeze boundaries.
Precipitable water values are exceeding 2 inches in many locales,
suggesting that water-loaded downdrafts may develop with the
stronger storms, supporting isolated damaging gusts. Furthermore,
modest directional shear may encourage the organization of
multicellular clusters, and a couple instances of hail may be
observed despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, the
overall coverage of severe storms should be isolated, and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/25/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…
LAT…LON 25808129 26668178 28758200 29238169 29298121 28918079
26768005 26108013 25748067 25808129
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