Mesoscale Discussion 2197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Areas affected…portions of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 261254Z – 261400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado or damaging gust is possible over the next
couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Organized multicellular clusters have been gradually
moving ashore across the FL Panhandle over the last couple of hours.
Amid these clusters is at least one organized bowing segment which
has developed some low-level rotation and a narrow rear inflow jet.
These storms are progressing in an ambient environment characterized
by marginal instability, weak deep-layer shear, and modest low-level
shear (with regional VADs showing some low-level curvature).
Buoyancy also diminishes with inland extent. While a brief tornado
or damaging gust may accompany the stronger storms over the next few
hours, the severe threat should remain sparse at best, and a WW
issuance is not anticipated.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 29698539 30158511 30638443 30728388 30558342 30188337
29848364 29548468 29698539