MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 37… FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected…Northeast Kansas…Northern Missouri
Concerning…Tornado Watch 37…
Valid 132329Z – 140130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.
SUMMARY…A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over
the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central
Missouri.
DISCUSSION…The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a
cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris
Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a
rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature
should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly
direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum
in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In
addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in
the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with
0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will
support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be
possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that
mature over the next hour or two.
Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from
near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate
deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on
forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a
brief tornado will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EAX…TOP…
LAT…LON 38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620
39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364
38689488
