MD 2200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Areas affected…portions of central and southern Illinois into
central and southern Indiana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 261902Z – 262030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A couple instances of hail are possible with the stronger
storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated and a WW
issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Pulse-cells and multicell storms have been increasing
in coverage and intensity across portions of central and southern
IL/IN over the past few hours as the boundary layer warms and cooler
mid-level temperatures overspread the region. Low 60s F surface
dewpoints beneath -13 to -14 C 500 mb temperatures are supporting
1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As such, a couple instances of hail may occur
with the stronger storms as a 60 kt 300 mb jet streak overspreads
the OH Valley, resulting in elongated hodographs. The severe threat
should remain isolated, so a WW issuance appears unlikely.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/26/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LMK…IWX…IND…PAH…LOT…ILX…LSX…
LAT…LON 37998815 38448879 39058950 39608979 40028954 40608857
40778802 40748738 40288650 39768621 39278610 38828618
38458639 38218694 37998815
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