SPC MD 2203

SPC MD 2203

MD 2203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 2203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Areas affected…portions of western Tennessee

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 282216Z – 282315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…A couple instances of severe hail or wind may occur with
one of the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain sparse
and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Isolated thunderstorms have experienced an uptick in
intensity over the past couple of hours along a baroclinic zone.
Steep low-level lapse rates atop upper 60s F dewpoints are
contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Veering with height of the
tropospheric wind fields is supporting 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear, which is encouraging the organization of transient supercell
thunderstorms. Given poor mid-level lapse rates/marginal instability
and modest vertical wind shear, the severe threat should be limited
to a couple instances of severe hail/wind with the stronger, more
persistent supercell storms. Given the isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/28/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…PAH…MEG…

LAT…LON 36398944 36658897 36558853 36318831 35908816 35428825
35228855 35228889 35468924 36058952 36398944

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