MD 2204 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704… FOR NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024
Areas affected...Northern Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...
Valid 041907Z - 042030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of higher tornado potential may be developing
across northern Texas, including the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area,
based on storm and environmental trends.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper
low across eastern NM/western TX is beginning to overspread central
TX as evident by an increase in cellular convection across the warm
sector over the past 1-2 hours. More recently, a few cells have show
signs of robust intensification within a corridor of higher MLCAPE
where temperatures have climbed into the low 80s with low 70s
dewpoints. The FWD VWP is sampling 0-1 km SRH values around 150
m2/s2, which, in conjunction with MLCAPE values upwards of 2000
J/kg, is supporting STP values between 1-2 across the region. A
couple of robust supercells will likely emerge over the next 1-2
hours with an increasing large hail and tornado threat (including
the potential for a strong tornado) prior to the passage of a
outflow-dominant squall line from the west.
..Moore.. 11/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32119794 33159736 33679698 33799653 33859613 33799571
33659552 33359546 32899563 32479598 32199623 31949648
31809675 31709709 31679738 31629761 31709788 31919808
32119794
