Mesoscale Discussion 2206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023
Areas affected…portions of eastern new NM and southern CO into the
far western OK/TX Panhandles.
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 302156Z – 010000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered high-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for
occasional damaging gusts and/or small hail through this evening.
Storm organization potential appears low, and a WW is not
DISCUSSION…As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing to the east of a broad upper
low centered over the Desert Southwest. Over the last hour, these
storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity with a
few stronger reflectively cores emerging over parts of
east/northeastern NM. On the fringes of the upper-level cold core,
surface dewpoints in the mid 40s F were supporting 500-750 J/kg of
MLCAPE which should be sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.
Vertical shear remains modest with much of the stronger southerly
flow aloft remaining to the west. However, this should increase with
time and 25-30 kt of effective shear may support occasional updraft
organization into sustained multicell clusters and or weak
supercells. With cloud bases remaining relatively high (at or above
2 km) damaging outflow winds are possible with the more organized
storms/clusters through this evening. A few instances of marginally
severe hail are also possible given relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates and the potential for a few transient supercell structures.
Observational trends and recent hi-res guidance suggest scattered
storms may pose an occasional severe threat over the next couple of
hours into this evening. While flow aloft will continue to increase,
nocturnal cooling of the relatively dry boundary layer will likely
favor a gradual weakening after dark. Given the uncertainty on the
longevity and organization of the potential severe threat, a WW is
unlikely at this time.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 33170560 33550645 34520697 35060708 35540688 36360608
37440491 37820432 38010311 37870262 37240218 36100254
34690348 33530440 33220542 33170560