Mesoscale Discussion 2208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023
Areas affected…eastern New Mexico…the western Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle…and far West Texas.
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 021737Z – 021830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon.
Supercells with large hail (up to baseball size) may eventually
congeal into linear segments with an increasing severe wind threat.
In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION…A very moist airmass (low to mid 60s dewpoints) has
advected across most of eastern New Mexico. This has resulted in a
nearly uncapped airmass with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Stronger
mid-level flow (45 knots at 4km per ABX VWP) is starting to
overspread the warm sector and will continue to advance eastward
during the day. This will provide ample shear for storm
organization, including supercells. Initially, storms are expected
to form on the higher terrain across central New Mexico into Far
West Texas. The greatest hail threat will likely be as storms move
off of the higher terrain and reach maturity. There will be some
potential for 2-3 inch hail given the favorable upper-level
hodographs and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. This time
period will also be most favorable for some tornado threat. Surface
winds have backed out of the southeast this morning which has
resulted in enough low-level hodograph curvature to support the
threat for a tornado or two.
Eventually, these storms may congeal into several linear segments
with an increasing severe wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be issued by mid-afternoon.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 31220591 32870567 34160544 35150571 35490513 35580380
35460305 35220262 34340242 33450253 32470257 30840269
30310351 30420509 31220591