MD 2213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023
Areas affected…Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 030022Z – 030215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Gusty winds are possible with convection across the
Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South Dakota this evening. At this
time a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Mid-level height falls are spreading across the
northern/central High Plains in advance of approaching upper trough.
In response to this feature, surface low has developed southeast of
CYS, which will lift north-northeast into South Dakota later this
evening. Latest diagnostic data exhibits substantial instability
immediately ahead of the surface low over the NE Panhandle, south of
the synoptic cold front. This wedge of buoyancy will support
strong/severe convection over the next few hours before
outflow/nocturnal cooling become less favorable for gusty
downdrafts. Convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage
across southeast WY/NE Panhandle/southwest SD. This activity should
lift/spread north-northeast as LLJ strengthens over the next few
hours. At this time it appears the risk for severe gusts will be too
limited to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch; though, isolated
severe is possible for the next few hours before boundary layer
cools.
..Darrow/Edwards.. 10/03/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…UNR…CYS…
LAT…LON 42460374 43450231 43290133 42030177 41080253 41120372
42460374
Comments