Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023
Areas affected…portions of central KS and far northwest OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch needed soon
Valid 032204Z – 032300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Deepening convection will likely organize into a mixed
mode of supercells and line segments with a risk for all hazards. A
new watch will be issued shortly.
DISCUSSION…East of a dryline/sfc confluence zone, diurnal heating
and ascent from an advancing mid-level trough has removed much of
the inhibition over parts of central KS and far northwest OK.
Initial storms have quickly deepened and should continue to do so
with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available. Increasing deep-layer shear
of 40-50 kt, on top of an increasing low-level jet, will support
storm organization into supercells and short line segments. Eventual
upscale growth into one or more linear clusters appears likely as
the cold front begins to surge eastward after dark. With a favorable
overlap of shear and buoyancy supporting organized storms, damaging
winds and hail (some 2+ in) appear likely with the strongest storms.
Strong low-level shear may also support a tornado or two, but is
more conditional upon supercells remaining discrete. Given the rapid
increase in severe risk, a new watch will be needed shortly.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 38140110 38720002 39269923 39829876 40069814 40119714
39409677 38219703 37389746 36889784 36649869 36649983
36800078 37200107 38140110