Mesoscale Discussion 2229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023
Areas affected…The Texas Big Bend to the Permian Basin
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 041847Z – 041945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Supercell development is expected along the dryline this
afternoon across West Texas with a primary threat for large
(potentially very large) hail.
DISCUSSION…Moderate to strong instability has developed ahead of a
dryline across West Texas with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has led to 2000 to 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE with 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Expect initial storms
to be focused near the higher terrain in northern Mexico and the
Davis Mountains where an enhanced cumulus field can already be seen
on visible satellite. However, by later this afternoon, expect more
widespread storm development as instability continues to increase
and height falls overspread the region.
Large hail will be the primary threat with these initial supercells.
Given the long, straight hodographs, some splitting supercells will
also be possible with the potential for very large (2-3 inch) hail.
There is less mid-level shear farther south (near the Rio Grande)
and thus, watch probabilities are more uncertain in this area.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 29690420 30520412 31900330 32530310 32930279 33040126
32980044 32900017 31890043 31520067 30290154 29710202
29600255 29230281 28940289 28660306 28560350 28810397