MD 2233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Areas affected...northeast TX and far southeast OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181529Z - 181730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado and localized damaging wind threat will
exist through early afternoon with mesovortices within a line of
low-topped convection moving east-northeast across northeast Texas.
A watch may be necessary if greater deepening into thunderstorms
occurs.
DISCUSSION...Several transient and generally weak mesovortices have
been noted around the Metroplex with a largely north/south-oriented
convective line moving east-northeastward. Low-level shear is quite
strong ahead of the line per area VWPs and will remain so into early
afternoon. Convective depth has been a limiting factor to more
persistent/stronger mesovortices, with a lack of CG lightning
production and echo tops to around 25k ft. It appears the northern
tip of 67-68 F surface dew points may be necessary for a consistent
severe threat. This should tend to ripple slowly southward into
early afternoon as the convective line occludes the rich low-level
moisture plume emanating north across east TX.
..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499
32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690
32789687
