MD 2238 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Areas affected…central portion of the FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 112046Z – 112245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Widely scattered, weakly rotating deep convection will
probably persist for the next 1-2 hours before the onset of slight
nocturnal cooling. As large-scale ascent increases this evening, a
subsequent reintensification of storm activity is expected. A
tornado risk may develop with this evening storm activity. It is
uncertain regarding the timing for a possible tornado watch.
DISCUSSION…Radar/satellite imagery shows a destabilized boundary
layer featuring deep-moist convection over central portions of the
FL Peninsula. This convection has developed south of a stationary
front/baroclinic zone draped west to east across the north-central
part of the peninsula. Surface observations show temperatures
generally in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the 68-70 deg F range
north of the boundary, whereas south of the boundary temperatures
range through the 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s.
Late afternoon 88D VAD data shows a veering and gradually
strengthening wind profile in the lowest 8 km. Flow is modest in
the lowest 4-6 km currently, but is expected to slowly intensify
through the evening and lead to a gradual enlargement of the
hodograph. Given the expected arrival of stronger large-scale
forcing for ascent later this evening into the overnight, the
forecast for greater supercell coverage/intensity is anticipated to
coincide with this process. In the meantime, brief rotation may
occur for the next 1-2 hours with the focus perhaps concentrating
near the temperature gradient/front.
..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…
LAT…LON 26478194 26678235 27818293 28678276 29148166 29098109
28708054 27108010 26478194
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