MD 2241 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Areas affected…portions of the FL Big Bend and FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 120423Z – 120630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storms off the western FL coast have slowly intensified
over the last few hours. Supercells with the potential for a few
tornadoes are possible overnight. A Tornado Watch is being
considered.
DISCUSSION…Ongoing convection across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
has shown steady intensification trend this evening as it has neared
the coast of the FL Big Bend and central Peninsula. The kinematic
environment ahead of these storms has slowly improved, and should
continue to do so, this evening with a moderate low-level jet and
strong mid-level flow head of a deepening coastal low. Area VADs
show 0-1km SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2 supportive of storm
organization and rotation. Some uncertainty remains with regard to
the thermodynamic environment given the timing with the diurnal
cycle. While temperatures have cooled, inland advection of
high-theta-e air with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F should
counteract nocturnal stabilization within the warm sector and allow
for some northward movement of the warm front later tonight. The
strongly sheared and weakly unstable environment will likely support
a risk for supercells and a couple of tornadoes as storms move
onshore tonight. A Tornado Watch may be needed across parts of the
Big Bend and FL Peninsula within the hour.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MLB…TBW…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 29238305 29818356 29878360 30108419 29988440 30098457
30218458 30438426 30438409 30398356 30198251 30018212
29978205 29528162 29218148 29078149 28668142 28258142
27848147 27388157 27208174 27078205 27218247 27468265
27658282 28188275 28738274 28968279 29238305
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